January 2026

Canary in the Coalmine

In January we had 41 interactions with European mid-cap management teams across a wide range of industries.

A message we heard repeatedly - and more clearly than in recent months - was early “green shoots” in European construction and infrastructure spend. 

What management teams pointed to

• Customer confidence starting to improve

• Order pipelines beginning to firm up

• Inventories held by customers and distributors are no longer elevated. 

Where this is showing up

The companies making these comments were primarily in: Capital goods, Building materials and Equipment rental 

Why this stood out

This messaging is a clear contrast to our meetings in Autumn, when many companies were still cautious on the timing of revenues expected from government stimulus programmes, such as in Germany. 

Mid Cap of the Month - Accor

This month we’re highlighting Accor, a French-listed global hotel group with over 40 brands, including Sofitel, Fairmont, Swissotel and Raffles.

Why Accor is interesting Accor has pursued an asset-light strategy - creating a more defensive profile and higher return on capital employed - yet it still trades at a substantial discount to asset-light peers such as IHG, Marriot and Hilton. 

We believe there are several imminent catalysts that could drive a material re-rating:

1. Essendi stake disposal

   Accor is due to announce the disposal of its remaining 30% minority stake in property owner and operator Essendi, which currently has a book value of €850m (versus €11bn market cap).

   
   

2. Potential listing of Ennismore

   The company is evaluating a potential listing of its luxury and lifestyle business Ennismore, which we believe is a source of hidden value within Accor and should command a higher multiple given its growth rate and potential.

   
   

3. Scope for meaningful shareholder returns

   If either of the above catalysts materialise, we anticipate Accor will be able to distribute a substantial amount of cash to shareholders - most likely through a material share buyback - which would be value-accretive at the current valuation and supportive of the share price.

   
   

4. Trading and pipeline update

   We also expect an update on current trading and pipeline momentum, and we have a positive stance versus consensus.
   

🌟Starr's Rating

Starting off strong with a personal favourite.

Kudu, 7 Moxon St, London W1U 4EP

Kudu, a South African restaurant, has recently moved from its Peckham roots to Marylebone.

It has a laid-back atmosphere with a focus on its grill (or braii), perfect for sharing. The interior has been curated with Marylebone glamour in mind - think maroon granite counters offset with dark green tones.

Start with a cocktail upstairs at Smokey Kudu, a discrete bar offering skilfully crafted twists on the classics. Over dinner, choose a mix of small plates followed by something off the braii - my favourites are the grilled tiger prawns followed by the dry aged rib eye to share. And don’t skip the bread!

Take your (Date/Mate/Colleague/Mum): Mate

StarrRating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)

Important Information

This material is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, investment advice or a personal recommendation. It does not take into account the investment objectives or financial circumstances of any specific person. You should make an independent assessment of any investment described herein, including seeking tax, legal and accounting advice where appropriate. References to specific securities are illustrative only and not recommendations to buy or sell; securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed do not guarantee price appreciation. Haverstock Capital LLP monitors portfolios continuously and may alter its views based on market, economic, political or portfolio-specific factors. Any forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties; actual outcomes may differ materially. Haverstock Capital LLP undertakes no obligation to update them. Unless otherwise stated, all information sourced from Haverstock Capital LLP as at the date of publication. While believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy or completeness.